Election night 2008

It's November 4. You're watching the election results come in. What should you expect?


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7:00pm Eastern

First polls close. McCain is out to an early lead with wins in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia (which will take a little longer to call). Kentucky's McConnell and Georgia's Saxby Chambliss will be talked about, how if either loses (unlikely) the Democrats have a shot at a fillibuster-proof 60 Senate seats. Indiana is too close to call. Obama wins tiny Vermont. And Virginia ... Virginia is what you should really care about. If Obama wins Virginia, he will force McCain to win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina, and any one of New Hampshire/Colorado/New Mexico/(most likely) Nevada. Since Virginia is such a critical state, networks may be slow to call it.

McCain 31, Obama 3, Too Close 24 (Indiana, Virginia)

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7:30pm Eastern

Polls close in Ohio and West Virginia. West Virginia is called for McCain, with Ohio too close to call. Ohio is absolutely critical to McCain; an unexpected call for Obama means you can go to sleep. The longer it takes to call West Virginia, the better for Obama, as it means McCain will have trouble in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

McCain 36, Obama 3, Too Close 44 (Ohio, Indiana, Virginia)

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8:00pm Eastern

Now it gets busy. Obama evens it up as northeast polls close . Immediate calls in Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and probably Maine. McCain gets easy calls in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Missouri and Florida will be too close to call. Obama would love a quick call in New Hampshire, which he'll need if the night goes badly. But the most important call all night will be Pennsylvania. Like Virginia, this may be an early call for Obama. If it is, the election is essentially over. Pennsylvania is McCain's Alamo, the toughest state for him that he absolutely must have. For this reason, analysts will be very careful not to call this one too soon (see Florida, 2000).

One of the Mississippi senate races, Wicker-Musgrove, may be close, though the Republican is favored. The Democratic challenger Shaheen is favored slightly in the New Hampshire senate race.

McCain 69, Obama 78, Too Close 107 (Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia)

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8:30pm Eastern

Republicans grit their teeth. The only new state called is Arkansas, for McCain. But Republican North Carolina is too close to call. And with 2 hours' votes and little news, Virginia is probably called for Obama. Indiana, though, may be called for McCain. If not, bad news for McCain. An Obama win in Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri or North Carolina effectively ends it. (Some attention for NC senate race, with incumbent Elizabeth Dole the underdog.)

McCain 86, Obama 91, Too Close 98 (North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio)

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9:00pm Eastern

The beginning of the end. Easy calls for McCain in Arizona, Texas, Kansas, Louisiana, Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Slow South Dakota call is bad news for McCain, as it means neighboring Montana or North Dakota may slip away. Democratic New York and Rhode Island are called for Obama, followed soon after by former battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Obama backup-plan New Mexico and Colorado may start out too close to call, ditto the Senate race between favored Democrat Udall and Republican Shaffer. Minnesota's senate race between Republican incumbent Coleman and Democrat Franken may be the closest of the night. A close race for Cornyn in Texas would be the sign of a terrible night for Republicans.

With few new tossups, and only 4 states reporting in the next two hours, the attention turns to calling existing states. New Hampshire should have enough votes in to be called for Obama. There will be pressure to make a call in Pennsylvania or Ohio, since a close call in one means the other's likely not so close. If Pennsylvania is still uncalled, Nevada talk begins.

McCain 156, Obama 167, Too Close 108 (Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio)

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10:00pm Eastern

Utah rivals Wyoming for McCain's biggest margins of the night. McCain also hopes for sparsely populated Montana to be called his way after 30-45 minutes. Much is made of Iowa's vote for Obama, how it voted Bush last time, but was the start of Obama's surprise win of the Democratic nomination. Filler stories about Obama's ground game, how the long primary allowed him to expand his Iowa-style organization across the country.

The real story may be Nevada. New Mexico and Colorado may be called for Obama by now. Assuming Obama has won Virginia and New Hampshire, a win in Nevada pretty much seals the deal; Obama could lose Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and even Pennsylvania and still win the presidency. Since no remaining state but North Dakota will even be close, it will all be about returns in the toss-ups.

McCain 164, Obama 187, Too Close 99 (Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio)

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11:00pm Eastern

Except for Alaska (with Ted Steven's close re-election bid), all state polls are now closed. Idaho is called for McCain, but North Dakota takes longer. Meanwhile, the West Coast comes in big for Obama. California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii all go big for Obama (though Washington and Oregon may take 15-30 minutes to call). Obama's 77 additional electoral votes bring him to 264, assuming he hasn't won Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, or Nevada. The night ends when one of these goes Obama, or all go McCain.

In the Senate, Oregon Republican incumbent Smith is in for a nail-biter against Merkley. If Obama has an early win, suppressed turnout may help the Democrat.

McCain 171, Obama 264, Too Close 103 (Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio)

Polls at Oct 22:
NV = barely Obama
NC = tie
FL = tie
PA = lean Obama
MO = barely Obama
OH = barely Obama

Other possibilities: Obama is a slight underdog to take Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana. The last of these would also end things early.

Powell Endorsement

And Sarah Palin iz ur new Michael Scott

Someone needs to do this YouTube Mashup. Really.

FailBlog iz ur new cheezburger

FailBlog.org

Don't Vote

Oh, that's it...

Intolerant Chic

Couldn't (didn't) say it better myself.

Out of Touch

I used to take pride in the fact that I understood the "man on the street." When talking with friends about politics, I could instinctively get what a typical voter would think about whatever was being said.

I still have some of it, when I wince at the idea of impeaching Bush, or whatever Michael Moore has most recently come up with.

But as I've increasingly spent time surrounded by highly educated economic conservatives, I feel myself losing touch with the concerns of normal families.

I mention this because there is a debate tomorrow night between Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin. Columnist David Brooks has (insightfully) described her as a product of the populist wing of the Republican Party. While I understood why people would vote for Bush over Gore (pompous) or Kerry (effete and patrician), I don't get Palin. Or maybe I half do, but I can't nail it down.

Katherine told me once that Bush was a disaster, when she was living in Texas. Palin seems to be a reincarnation of Bush, in the form of a WWE wrestling teen's wet dream.

I just watched a video on the NYTimes web site that showed Palin's past debates. She avoided detailed questions and mouthed banalities (an accusation made not unfairly about Obama at times). Her Republican primary opponents called her directly on talking utter nonsense. And she trounced them.

I find myself wondering how much of modern American culture is not about economics, or social/religious views, but rather about class. Class is both surprisingly absent and unmentionable in the US, compared to other countries. It has not been a defining element of politics (or named as such). But I think we may be seeing it come to the fore.

I suspect "Southerner" has been a code for "working class". Clinton ran as the McDonald's candidate against yuppie Bush. Intellectual Gore vs Cowboy Bush Jr went the other way.

This is rambling (and I have food in the oven), but the point is, everyone is saying Palin will be an embarrassment to McCain. Some intellectual conservatives have already called for her to resign.

But what if, the average American is so angry at the "Masters of the Universe" -- Wall St brokers, politicians, lawyers, etc -- as a result of decades of not getting ahead, as a symptom of the increasing gap between the haves and have nots... even if I believe that this is a result of conservative politics ... but if the party of wall street decides (as the House Republicans did) that the revolt of mad as hell (not to say "bitter") voters is something to align with...

What if the Republican working class formerly Dixiecrat base is so pissed at rich educated people who screw the country up (Bush was the first MBA president) that they want to vote for someone who is blithely ignorant about the world? Can Palin stroke class resentment *on behalf of Republicans*, against Professor Obama and Oracle Biden, in a kind of double-down on the original Bush strategy?

Far too long-winded this, but my point is, if Palin gets up and does a George Bush "gee shucks these smarty-pants in Washington need some of my down-home wisdom to shake them up", surely the people won't fall for that. Surely. Right?

I wish my working class gut could be more sure.